What is Canada’s “Fair Share” of the Global Emissions Burden? An Examination of Fair and Proportional Emissions Reduction Targets

According to the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, global temperatures are warming by approximately 0.1-0.3°C per decade. As an estimated 1.1°C of global temperature warming above pre-industrial levels has already occurred, 1.5°C of global warming will likely occur sometime between 2030 and 2052. While international coordination is critically needed to allocate emissions amongst states, such a suggestion raises the contentious question of how to equitably distribute emissions amongst states. This paper uses several equity approaches to consider what might comprise Canada’s “fair” emissions reduction target. A literature review conducted by this author revealed two studies which allow for higher atmospheric concentrations that would not limit warming to 1.5°C as well as three studies which comply with 1.5°C pathways. Every “fair” target suggested by these five studies is significantly more ambitious than Canada’s present emissions reduction target. At minimum, these proposed targets call for Canada to nearly double its emissions reduction target, however, multiple targets call for Canada to reach net-zero emissions by 2030 and undertake mitigation efforts to further reduce emissions beyond its own borders. This paper concludes by highlighting several strategies to work towards setting and meeting fair emissions reduction targets in Canada.