Effect of Future Extreme Precipitation Events on the Stability of Soil Embankments Across Ontario

Changes in climatic conditions have been observed since about 1950. Climate change is expected to increase the magnitude and frequency of extreme events as well as long-term changes in average climatic conditions. The stability of embankments is susceptible to water infiltration as a result of intense rainfall events. The primary objective of this research is to quantify the impacts of future climate change on the stability of typical highway soil embankments across Ontario. The results indicate that a higher probability of slope failure is expected under extreme precipitation events with longer return periods. Moreover, in silt embankments, the annual probability of failure in the future is greater than the historical ones. In addition, embankments constructed with fine-grained materials have the potential of triggering slope failure in comparison to those constructed with coarse-grained materials. The comparison between general and shallow failure shows that shallower failures are more susceptible to climatic events.