Understanding the effect of interventions on transmission dynamics of emerging disease: A case study of COVID-19 pandemic

Simple item page
dc.contributor.advisorMoghadas, Seyed
dc.contributor.authorTariq, Mehreen
dc.date.accessioned2021-11-15T15:16:02Z
dc.date.available2021-11-15T15:16:02Z
dc.date.copyright2021
dc.date.issued2021-11-15
dc.date.updated2021-11-15T15:16:02Z
dc.degree.disciplineApplied and Industrial Mathematics
dc.degree.levelMaster's
dc.degree.nameMSc - Master of Science
dc.description.abstractMany countries implemented strict social distancing measures to reduce infections, hospitalizations, and deaths during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. We developed an age-structured deterministic compartmental model and parameterized it with recent COVID-19 estimates to evaluate the effect of self-isolation and stay-at-home orders on infections, hospitalizations, and deaths. The findings show that a 5-month stay-at-home order targeting older individuals ($\geq 50$ years) had the greatest reduction in hospitalizations (over $47\%$) and deaths (over $55\%$). A 5-month stay-at-home order for individuals $\geq 65$ years had the most hospitalizations (over 0.0087) and deaths (0.0027) averted per-person practising the stay-at-home order. School closures reduced the outcomes of interest if implemented for a longer duration. Due to the increase in infections post-lockdown (shown in scenario 2), the strategies tested in this study can be used to strategically lift lockdown orders and minimize the burden on healthcare systems until herd immunity is achieved (through vaccination).
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10315/38640
dc.languageen
dc.rightsAuthor owns copyright, except where explicitly noted. Please contact the author directly with licensing requests.
dc.subjectPublic policy
dc.subject.keywordsstay-at-home orders
dc.subject.keywordsdisease modelling
dc.subject.keywordsCOVID-19 pandemic
dc.subject.keywordsmathematical modelling
dc.titleUnderstanding the effect of interventions on transmission dynamics of emerging disease: A case study of COVID-19 pandemic
dc.typeElectronic Thesis or Dissertation

Files

Original bundle
Now showing 1 - 1 of 1
Thumbnail Image
Name:
Tariq_Mehreen_2021_Masters.pdf
Size:
7.66 MB
Format:
Adobe Portable Document Format
Description:
Download
License bundle
Now showing 1 - 2 of 2
No Thumbnail Available
Name:
license.txt
Size:
1.87 KB
Format:
Plain Text
Description:
Download
No Thumbnail Available
Name:
YorkU_ETDlicense.txt
Size:
3.39 KB
Format:
Plain Text
Description:
Download

Collections

Applied & Industrial Mathematics

All items in the YorkSpace institutional repository are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved except where explicitly noted.