Effect of Climate Change on Slope Stability of Variably Saturated Embankments Using Local Factor of Safety and In-Situ Stress Finite Element Analysis

The global climate change process is actively underway and is expected to continue over the century. It has been predicted that the climate variables such as precipitation and potential evaporation will change significantly over the course of the century. Consequent changes in moisture content patterns within the earth structures, can destabilize, currently stable natural and engineered slopes and infrastructure embankments. In this research, the effect of climate change on the stability of embankments is quantified by estimating a field of Local Factor of Safety (LFS) using a coupled in-situ stress finite element analysis and variably saturated flow analysis. In this method, the effect of moisture content variation on the effective stress is taken into account using suction stress state.